Every system has limits, those points where steady pressure suddenly turns into rapid change. Think of tipping a canoe: for a while it leans, then seemingly without warning it flips. All the way to that tipping point, with the correct shift the canoe can right itself. Just past that point it can’t, the canoe tips. That tipping point is a threshold. Thresholds have been identified in all kinds of systems. In nature, sufficient cover of ground layer plants will hold soil together as water flows over land, below a certain level and water can breaks through and reshape the landscape. In organisations or communities, small stresses can build quietly until a decision, disaster, or disruption pushes things over the edge. Resilience practice focuses on recognising these points and acting early, before a threshold is crossed and run-away change happens.
A practical first move is to identify slow variables and the buffers that provide a shock absorber to tipping point thresholds. Buffers are margins that give space to adapt before a threshold is crossed. They can be physical reserves, spare capacity, trusted relationships, or simply time to think. Without them, a small shock can quickly escalate into crisis as a threshold is crossed with little time to react. Threshold awareness also asks us to watch for leading indicators, not only lagging results. Are complaints rising, maintenance slipping, staff turnover creeping up, flood heights hitting new marks, or informal workarounds multiplying. Each can signal eroding buffer.
A resilient mindset pays attention to early signs of strain, invests in buffers and slack where it matters, and rehearses what to do if limits are reached. Thresholds remind us to slow down, to pay attention to signals and leave margins of error for the unexpected.
Something to chew on:
What early warning signs might tell you a threshold is approaching in your system? What buffers could you build now to create more room to adapt?
Resilience Bites offers weekly insights from the Australian Resilience Centre, drawn from decades of work alongside communities across Australia and internationally. Each Bite explores an aspect of resilience and closes with a reflective question to chew on.
Across the series we'll explore themes that shape resilience in practice, including place, patterns, networks, leadership, learning, feedbacks, thresholds and the deeper work of change.
This series is for people working in communities, landscapes, systems and change. It will help you learn key resilience concepts, apply them in practice and build our collective capacity to create resilient futures.
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